http://www.forrester.com/ER/Research/Brief/0,1317,16272,00.html
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Executive Overview: Linux And Open Source
In 2003, Linux and open source will go mainstream as cost-sensitive
IT execs discover Linux on Intel's compelling economics. Smart CIOs
will set aside the religious wars to see the truth: Open source is
good enough for many datacenter tasks.
by Ted Schadler with Charles Rutstein, Angela Tseng Write to Ted
Schadler at tschadler@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Despite its recent rise to fame, open source software isn't new --
after all, it's anchored the Internet with BIND and Sendmail for
decades and runs more Web servers than any proprietary
alternative. What's different now? Open source software -- and the
hardware from Intel and AMD that most users run it on -- has passed
the good-enough point. Put another way, today's open source rewards
outweigh the risks (see Figure 1).
But sorting through the open source propaganda and avoiding open
source choices that don't make sense -- like desktop operating systems
-- isn't easy. To avoid these gaffes, start your strategy planning
process with answers to these questions: What's different about open
source software?
Which open source products should firms use?
What's the right open source deployment strategy?
Which vendors can help with open source?
Fig 1 Open Source Rewards Outweigh The Risks
WHAT'S DIFFERENT ABOUT OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE? Open source software
differs from commercial software in important ways that stem from its
development processes and licensing terms (see Figure 2) and (see
Figure 3). CIOs should understand three key dimensions: Development:
The scientific method yields great platform software. The open source
development process is analogous to the scientific method -- with
published results, peer review, etc. It's particularly well-suited to
commodity infrastructure software because the incentives for open
source contribution -- accolades of a large community and the personal
satisfaction of seeing your code broadly adopted -- are mostly found
in platform software rather than niche application software.
Licensing: typically free. Open source software licenses are usually
free. But beware: Other costs -- like documentation, support, and
commercial add-ons -- will still swell firms' IT budgets. In Linux,
for example, Red Hat's revenues are for subscriptions (code base
maintenance) and service rather than licenses. One note: The general
public license (GPL) terms -- under which direct enhancements to Linux
must be made open source -- are sometimes seen as a fatal flaw in the
open source story. Forrester disagrees.
Support: a broad array of choices. Open source software has four kinds
of vendors competing for support: 1) distributors like SuSE for Linux
or Covalent Technologies for Apache; 2) hardware vendors like Dell,
HP, and IBM; 3) software vendors like SAP and Oracle; and 4)
traditional systems integrators and outsourcers. These vendors compete
fiercely on quality and price, yielding an efficient market for
buyers.
Fig 2 The Differences Between Open Source And Commercial Software
Fig 3 Open Source Development Uses The Scientific Method
WHICH OPEN SOURCE PRODUCTS SHOULD FIRMS USE? SourceForge.net reports
more than 50,000 open source projects. But let's be clear: Only a
handful are ready for datacenter deployments. In general, firms should
(see Figure 4): Accept open source in embedded systems. Linux is
popping up in many storage subsystems and network appliances; every
device needs an operating system, and Linux is free and
reliable. Firms can comfortably accept Linux inside a DataPower XML
switch or in a Panasonic DVD-RAM drive. Why? Because it's the hardware
vendor's job to support the software -- not yours.
Consider open source for commodity platform software. Open source's
sweet spot is in platform software: the Linux OS, Apache Web server,
and PHP scripting language. The bottom line? If you're a Unix shop
today, you'll probably be a Linux shop tomorrow. Why? Your skills,
procedures, and even apps will port easily -- and you'll save on the
Web server, OS, and hardware. Amazon's well-publicized move from
Solaris to Linux on HP Pentium-based servers helped cut Amazon's
technology capital budget by 25%.
Avoid open source on the desktop and for most apps and tools. With the
success of Linux and Apache, it seems like every vendor and developer
has initiated an open source product. But for the next three years,
CIOs will be smart to avoid most of them because most will fail one of
Forrester's three enterprise open source filters (see Figure 5).
Fig 4 Open Source Is Best For Commodity Software
Fig 5 For Enterprise Software, Apply Three Open Source Filters
WHAT'S THE RIGHT OPEN SOURCE DEPLOYMENT STRATEGY? Firms can deploy
and benefit from open source software without jumping into the open
source community. In fact, companies that don't have a deep technology
"build" culture should treat open source like commercial software:
Hands off the code. How should beginners deploy open source software?
Fund an open source competency center and staff it with skeptics. CIOs
making a commitment to open source should also commit to a team that
can demystify licensing issues, manage code rollouts, and sanity-check
projects. Staffing the center with skeptics -- not gurus -- will keep
corporate technology policy far away from the open source socialist
fringe.
Treat open source deployments more rigorously than commercial
ones. With open source, the cost barrier to upgrades is gone, right?
Wrong -- most of the cost of upgrades is in labor, not software
licenses. Indeed, the hidden costs of upgrades, such as
incompatibilities with other applications and hardware patches, may be
even more severe in an open source environment. Smart IT execs will
learn by engaging a partner like HP or Red Hat for Linux deployment
support.
Don't modify open source code unless you want to join the
community. Only firms that want to see their utilities, tools, and
extensions maintained by someone else should modify or extend the code
-- especially with code like Linux that's protected by the GNU General
Public License (GPL). See the Open Source Initiative
(www.opensource.org) for more information about open source licenses.
WHICH VENDORS CAN HELP WITH OPEN SOURCE? Firms need the same help
with open source software that they need with their mission-critical
applications and systems. For example, no firm should make a bet on a
product like Apache or JBoss without lining up vendors to help. Ask
the vendor with the most skin in the game -- typically your hardware
vendor, but sometimes an app vendor -- to support your open source
deployments. For Linux, Global 3,500 CIOs should: Standardize on a
Linux distribution: Red Hat or UnitedLinux. Linux distributions (the
combination of the open source kernel and add-ons and vendor-specific
features) are not identical. First choice: Red Hat, which has more
market share than all the other Linux "distros" combined. Smart
alternatives include SCO and Germany-based SuSE, both of which are
part of the UnitedLinux consortium.
Look to infrastructure giants for broad support. Linux distributors'
revenues come from service and support, and firms should engage these
specialists when needed. In the long run, however, gear vendors like
HP and IBM are your best bets for Linux support, while Java app server
vendors like BEA and Oracle are best for Apache. Already, HP claims
5,000 Linux service professionals, while IBM crows about its 4,000
Linux customers.
WHAT OPEN SOURCE MEANS TO THE SOFTWARE INDUSTRY What will be the
five-year impact of open source development on the software industry?
One thing's for sure: Open source software will gobble up more
application and middleware workloads. A maturing Java-on-Linux stack
will depress software server pricing. JBoss and Apache Tomcat are
already closing in on commercial J2EE app servers and servlet
engines. In five years, low-cost open source middleware will compress
the prices of commercial app servers from BEA, IBM, Oracle, and Sun --
and Microsoft, too.
IBM will shed nondifferentiating middleware. Today, IBM wields Linux
brilliantly to retain its Unix, iSeries, and mainframe customers in
the face of the Microsoft juggernaut. By 2005, IBM will embrace
enterprise-ready open source middleware as its own to tap into
developer interest in open source while retaining the value of its
WebSphere brand.
Microsoft will finally accept -- then master -- open source
development. Microsoft today treats Linux as a competitor to be
slain. But customers don't see it that way: They just want a simple
migration path from Unix/RISC to Intel. Microsoft will ultimately
realize that in the battle for customer wallet share, it must support
a Windows-Linux cohabitation strategy. One result? Redmond will shock
the tech world by open-sourcing the lowest layers of its common
language runtime, allowing Windows apps to run on any box, from
mainframe to IP phone.
Larry Ellison will establish the "Ellison Prize" for software
innovation. Today, open source software is better at creating stable
versions of known technologies than introducing entirely new kinds of
software. What's missing is not the process -- rather, it's the
motivation to innovate. In contrast, scientists can look to prizes
like the Nobel as a motivator for innovation. So today's software
barons should create their own $1 million prize, starting with an
award for Kernighan, Ritchie, and Thompson, the Bell Labs crew that
gave us C and the Unix kernel.
Open source distributors will survive as service companies. Red Hat's
IPO and subsequent stock run-up suggested that a new business model
for open source distribution would be fabulously
profitable. Hogwash. Linux distributors are service and software
distribution suppliers, a profitable business more like EDS or SAIC --
not like Microsoft.
RELATED MATERIALS In addition to the research that Forrester has done
on Linux, Forrester recommends two open source books. Eric Raymond has
written the definitive analysis of the open source development process
and culture in "The Cathedral & The Bazaar," and Hewlett-Packard's
Martin Fink's "The Business And Economics Of Linux And Open Source"
explains issues around licensing and deployments.
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Length: 8 page(s)
Technologies covered: Enterprise Architecture
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